Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The average count of everyday killings monthly in the country has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new administrative data. Nevertheless, public safety experts have cautioned that murder figures may not point to better countrywide security.

Notable Reduction in Daily Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in last November versus roughly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen over these past months is very notable,” the President said, noting that the previous month the least amount of murders were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has linked her public safety strategy for an apparently sharper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and we have specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

But, security analysts cautioned that using homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is notably true given the uptick in other crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not valid for estimating the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of everyday killings was similarly problematic because it might obscure days when there were especially elevated levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily average renders high peaks of violence less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for serious crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

However despite these measures, Mexico is still beset by severe violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a notable murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to build a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, socially it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas concluded.