Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
